And despite a surge in factory construction, there are significant headwinds for factory job growth in 2025.
Friday’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed the American economy created 22,000 factory jobs in November. That’s good! But it was not enough of a turnaround to make up for the 48,000 lost in October. That’s bad. Manufacturing employment has essentially been flat since early 2023, and we haven’t even been treading water very well either – there are approximately 66,000 fewer manufacturing jobs in America today than there were a year ago.
There’s likely to be an uptick in hiring in 2025, as the recent industrial policy-fueled surge in manufacturing construction becomes completed factories that hire workers. But that won’t account for the headwinds that has kept manufacturing employment down in 2024. The world is awash in production overcapacity, and it affects American workers.
Said Alliance for American Manufacturing President Scott Paul:
“While manufacturing jobs saw a nice rebound in November, the sector has been treading water for far too long. China’s industrial overcapacity and global economic weakness are the key external drivers pushing down factory jobs; interest rates that remained persistently high is the key internal driver.
“Moving forward, the next Congress and administration must complete the impactful investments in new manufacturing and consider support for additional strategic industries. Further tariffs on Chinese and other imports will also be essential, along with a massive overhaul of the USMCA.”
Indeed, the USMCA – the North American trade agreement that updated NAFTA – is up for a scheduled review in 2026 and there is significant concern that Mexico, a USMCA member, is being used as an export platform for Chinese goods looking to circumvent American tariffs.
“The United States, and now also Canada, will not tolerate having products manufactured by China enter their territories through Mexico, where those vehicles are assembled,” argues a recent article in El Pais. “And they will not accept the claim that Chinese plants planned in Mexico are exclusively meant to supply the Latin American market, not to export to the United States, as the Asian electric car company BYD has pointed out.”
BYD, it should be noted, is a heavily subsidized Chinese automotive giant and the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer that is banned in the U.S. from procurement contracts for buses that receive federal funding. At any rate, we’ll have something to say when December’s jobs report is revealed next month.