Even if there are positive signs in the economy now, compared to the dismal fourth quarter of last year, and January and February of this year, the recession can hang around for a long time.  Economists estimate that at least three years would pass before full employment returned and output rose enough for the economy to operate at its full capacity.  Brad Setser illustrates that the fall in global trade flows has been precipitated by the fall in global financial flows.  This is irrespective of any "protectionist" measures any government could have taken.  Even more importantly, Setser shows that the rise in U.S. imports relative to GDP (and there was a huge jump between 2002 and 2006) did not correspond to the rise in net private demand for U.S. financial assets. That puts in question the validity of the assertion by the trade proponents that the U.S. will trade services with the rest of the world, like financial investment services, in exchange for goods.  Turns out, most of the demand for our capital came from foreign governments, like China, that have been on the U.S. financial instruments buying binge.  These huge government capital inflows made the exporters own growth possible and also kept the interest rates artificially low in the U.S. directly contributing to the housing bubble in the U.S. Are we in a depression?  Since there is no technical definition, the answer is, “it depends.”  But these charts are discouraging.