Sachs's Hatzius says manufacturing 'rebound' merely cyclical growth
Since President Obama made a campaign promise, during the 2012 election cycle, to create 1 million new manufacturing jobs in his second term, the Alliance for American Manufacturing (AAM) has made sure to track his progress.
As you may recall, in February we launched our AAMeter. This web tool tracks each new manufacturing job the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports each month. And with two months of Obama's second term down, the president has 974,000 jobs to create before meeting his goal.
According to new research by Goldman Sachs, reaching 1 million new manufacturing jobs may be a lot easier said than done.
Jan Hatzius, who wrote the research note, concedes that the sector is indeed improving. But he also suggests this is merely cyclical and not an indicator of a major rebound.
After analyzing multiple facets of American manufacturing, including export performance (particularly in relation to China's) and the alleged low-cost energy advantage said to be available in the U.S., Hatzius concluded:
Evidence for a structural renaissance is scant so far...Measured productivity growth has been strong, but U.S. export performance — arguably a more reliable indicator of competitiveness — remains middling at best. And at least so far, there is not much evidence for large positive spillovers from the U.S. energy cost advantage to broader manufacturing output.
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